How USMNT can win World Cup group with game to spare — and why tiebreak rules raise stakes vs. Australia

The USMNT can clinch the top spot in their 2026 World Cup Group D with a game to spare if they beat Australia on Friday at Lumen Field in Seattle and Turkey fails to beat Paraguay later that evening. The U.S. currently leads Group D on goal differential ahead of Australia, who beat Turkey 2-0 on Saturday. FIFA's revised 2026 tiebreaker rules, which prioritize head-to-head results over goal differential, play a key role in this scenario under coach Mauricio Pochettino.